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Iberia Tbilisi vs Mjällby: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Iberia Tbilisi33rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Mjällby6th, 3 pts
29%Iberia Tbilisi win
26%Draw
45%Mjällby win

The model gives Iberia Tbilisi a 29% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Mjällby 45%. Iberia Tbilisi's chance of going through is 16% now: a win would take it to 34%, a defeat to 6%. Mjällby's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 75%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeIberia Tbilisi: top 8Iberia Tbilisi: throughMjällby: top 8Mjällby: through
Now<1%16%27%88%
Iberia Tbilisi win1%34%10%75%
Draw<1%13%17%87%
Mjällby win<1%6%43%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%Iberia Tbilisi clean sheet
32%Mjällby clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Iberia Tbilisi

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LSint-Truidense A0–2
  2. MD2Mjällby H this match22 October
  3. MD3Copenhagen A5 November
  4. MD4Getafe H26 November
  5. MD5Crvena Zvezda H10 December
  6. MD6Jablonec A17 December

Mjällby

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WInter Escaldes H2–0
  2. MD2Iberia Tbilisi A this match22 October
  3. MD3Borac H5 November
  4. MD4Kairat Almaty A26 November
  5. MD5Pafos H10 December
  6. MD6Atalanta A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Iberia Tbilisi vs Mjällby?

The model gives Iberia Tbilisi a 29% chance of winning and Mjällby 45%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Iberia Tbilisi vs Mjällby?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Iberia Tbilisi and 1.5 for Mjällby, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Iberia Tbilisi?

Iberia Tbilisi's qualification chance is 16% right now. A win would make it 34%, a draw 13% and a defeat 6%.

What does this match mean for Mjällby?

Mjällby's qualification chance is 88% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 87% and a defeat 75%.

When is Iberia Tbilisi vs Mjällby played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →