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Braga vs Gent: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Braga35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Gent14th, 3 pts
47%Braga win
26%Draw
28%Gent win

The model gives Braga a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Gent 28%. Braga's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 65%. Gent's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 88%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBraga: top 8Braga: throughGent: top 8Gent: through
Now20%82%41%93%
Braga win35%93%26%88%
Draw10%79%39%95%
Gent win5%65%68%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
33%Braga clean sheet
22%Gent clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Braga

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LCopenhagen A0–3
  2. MD2Gent H this match22 October
  3. MD3Aarhus A5 November
  4. MD4KuPS Kuopio H26 November
  5. MD5Brann A10 December
  6. MD6Egnatia H17 December

Gent

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WAarhus H1–0
  2. MD2Braga A this match22 October
  3. MD3KuPS Kuopio A5 November
  4. MD4Crvena Zvezda H26 November
  5. MD5Thun A10 December
  6. MD6Brann H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Braga vs Gent?

The model gives Braga a 47% chance of winning and Gent 28%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Braga vs Gent?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Braga and 1.1 for Gent, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Braga?

Braga's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 93%, a draw 79% and a defeat 65%.

What does this match mean for Gent?

Gent's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 88%.

When is Braga vs Gent played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →