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Jablonec vs Brighton: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Jablonec23rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Brighton1st, 3 pts
17%Jablonec win
22%Draw
62%Brighton win

The model gives Jablonec a 17% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Brighton 62%. Jablonec's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 34%. Brighton's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 94%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeJablonec: top 8Jablonec: throughBrighton: top 8Brighton: through
Now3%44%66%98%
Jablonec win12%76%39%94%
Draw3%50%53%98%
Brighton win1%34%78%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
15%Jablonec clean sheet
42%Brighton clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Jablonec

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LFreiburg A2–3
  2. MD2Brighton H this match22 October
  3. MD3Riga FC A5 November
  4. MD4Lugano H26 November
  5. MD5Trabzonspor A10 December
  6. MD6Iberia Tbilisi H17 December

Brighton

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WKauno Žalgiris H4–0
  2. MD2Jablonec A this match22 October
  3. MD3Getafe A5 November
  4. MD4Universitatea Craiova H26 November
  5. MD5Monaco H10 December
  6. MD6Panathinaikos A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Jablonec vs Brighton?

The model gives Jablonec a 17% chance of winning and Brighton 62%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).

Will both teams score in Jablonec vs Brighton?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jablonec and 1.9 for Brighton, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Jablonec?

Jablonec's qualification chance is 44% right now. A win would make it 76%, a draw 50% and a defeat 34%.

What does this match mean for Brighton?

Brighton's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 94%.

When is Jablonec vs Brighton played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →