Knockout Math
Live
EN

Inter Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Inter Escaldes34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Universitatea Craiova19th, 1 pt
23%Inter Escaldes win
24%Draw
53%Universitatea Craiova win

The model gives Inter Escaldes a 23% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Universitatea Craiova 53%. Inter Escaldes's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 19%, a defeat to 2%. Universitatea Craiova's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeInter Escaldes: top 8Inter Escaldes: throughUniversitatea Craiova: top 8Universitatea Craiova: through
Now<1%6%9%68%
Inter Escaldes win<1%19%1%41%
Draw<1%5%4%58%
Universitatea Craiova win<1%2%15%84%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.7Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
19%Inter Escaldes clean sheet
37%Universitatea Craiova clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–210%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Inter Escaldes

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LMjällby A0–2
  2. MD2Universitatea Craiova H this match22 October
  3. MD3Crvena Zvezda A5 November
  4. MD4Copenhagen H26 November
  5. MD5Getafe A10 December
  6. MD6Aarhus H17 December

Universitatea Craiova

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DGetafe H1–1
  2. MD2Inter Escaldes A this match22 October
  3. MD3Egnatia H5 November
  4. MD4Brighton A26 November
  5. MD5Kairat Almaty A10 December
  6. MD6Copenhagen H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Inter Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova?

The model gives Inter Escaldes a 23% chance of winning and Universitatea Craiova 53%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Inter Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Inter Escaldes and 1.7 for Universitatea Craiova, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Inter Escaldes?

Inter Escaldes's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 19%, a draw 5% and a defeat 2%.

What does this match mean for Universitatea Craiova?

Universitatea Craiova's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 58% and a defeat 41%.

When is Inter Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →