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Borac vs KuPS Kuopio: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Borac27th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
KuPS Kuopio31st, 0 pts
39%Borac win
26%Draw
34%KuPS Kuopio win

The model gives Borac a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and KuPS Kuopio 34%. Borac's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 47%, a defeat to 11%. KuPS Kuopio's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 54%, a defeat to 14%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBorac: top 8Borac: throughKuPS Kuopio: top 8KuPS Kuopio: through
Now1%27%1%31%
Borac win2%47%<1%14%
Draw<1%20%1%27%
KuPS Kuopio win<1%11%3%54%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Borac clean sheet
26%KuPS Kuopio clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Borac

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LPanathinaikos A1–2
  2. MD2KuPS Kuopio H this match22 October
  3. MD3Mjällby A5 November
  4. MD4Atalanta H26 November
  5. MD5Hearts A10 December
  6. MD6Riga FC H17 December

KuPS Kuopio

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LTrabzonspor H2–4
  2. MD2Borac A this match22 October
  3. MD3Gent H5 November
  4. MD4Braga A26 November
  5. MD5CSKA Sofia H10 December
  6. MD6Nordsjælland A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Borac vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives Borac a 39% chance of winning and KuPS Kuopio 34%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Borac vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Borac and 1.2 for KuPS Kuopio, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Borac?

Borac's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 47%, a draw 20% and a defeat 11%.

What does this match mean for KuPS Kuopio?

KuPS Kuopio's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 54%, a draw 27% and a defeat 14%.

When is Borac vs KuPS Kuopio played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →