Knockout Math
Live
EN

Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Nordsjælland16th, 1 pt
–Matchday 2
CSKA Sofia28th, 0 pts
52%Nordsjælland win
25%Draw
23%CSKA Sofia win

The model gives Nordsjælland a 52% chance of winning, a draw 25% and CSKA Sofia 23%. Nordsjælland's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 47%. CSKA Sofia's chance of going through is 43% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 29%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeNordsjælland: top 8Nordsjælland: throughCSKA Sofia: top 8CSKA Sofia: through
Now11%72%3%43%
Nordsjælland win19%87%1%29%
Draw6%63%2%44%
CSKA Sofia win2%47%9%72%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
36%Nordsjælland clean sheet
19%CSKA Sofia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Nordsjælland

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DHearts A1–1
  2. MD2CSKA Sofia H this match22 October
  3. MD3Monaco A5 November
  4. MD4Panathinaikos H26 November
  5. MD5Hajduk Split A10 December
  6. MD6KuPS Kuopio H17 December

CSKA Sofia

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LMonaco H1–2
  2. MD2Nordsjælland A this match22 October
  3. MD3Panathinaikos A5 November
  4. MD4Trabzonspor H26 November
  5. MD5KuPS Kuopio A10 December
  6. MD6Thun H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia?

The model gives Nordsjælland a 52% chance of winning and CSKA Sofia 23%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nordsjælland and 1.0 for CSKA Sofia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Nordsjælland?

Nordsjælland's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 87%, a draw 63% and a defeat 47%.

What does this match mean for CSKA Sofia?

CSKA Sofia's qualification chance is 43% right now. A win would make it 72%, a draw 44% and a defeat 29%.

When is Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →