Crvena Zvezda vs Copenhagen: what's at stake in the Conference League?

Q: What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Crvena Zvezda24th, 0 pts

–Matchday 2

Copenhagen2nd, 3 pts

38%Crvena Zvezda win

26%Draw

36%Copenhagen win

The model gives Crvena Zvezda a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Copenhagen 36%. Crvena Zvezda's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 64%. Copenhagen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Outcome	Crvena Zvezda: top 8	Crvena Zvezda: through	Copenhagen: top 8	Copenhagen: through
Now	15%	78%	69%	99%
Crvena Zvezda win	30%	93%	52%	98%
Draw	9%	76%	67%	99%
Copenhagen win	4%	64%	88%	>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals

53%Both teams score

48%3 or more goals

28%Crvena Zvezda clean sheet

27%Copenhagen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%

1–010%

0–110%

2–18%

1–28%

0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Crvena Zvezda

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

MD1LLugano A2–3
MD2Copenhagen H this match22 October
MD3Inter Escaldes H5 November
MD4Gent A26 November
MD5Iberia Tbilisi A10 December
MD6Trabzonspor H17 December

Copenhagen

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +3

MD1WBraga H3–0
MD2Crvena Zvezda A this match22 October
MD3Iberia Tbilisi H5 November
MD4Inter Escaldes A26 November
MD5Lugano H10 December
MD6Universitatea Craiova A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Red Star Belgrade vs FC Copenhagen?

The model gives Crvena Zvezda a 38% chance of winning and Copenhagen 36%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Red Star Belgrade vs FC Copenhagen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Crvena Zvezda and 1.3 for Copenhagen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Crvena Zvezda?

Crvena Zvezda's qualification chance is 78% right now. A win would make it 93%, a draw 76% and a defeat 64%.

What does this match mean for Copenhagen?

Copenhagen's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Crvena Zvezda vs Copenhagen played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →