Knockout Math
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Torreense vs Olympiacos: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Torreense11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Olympiacos13th, 3 pts
21%Torreense win
24%Draw
55%Olympiacos win

The model gives Torreense a 21% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Olympiacos 55%. Torreense's chance of going through is 60% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 50%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Torreense: top 8Torreense: throughOlympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: through
Now7%60%36%91%
Torreense win18%84%18%79%
Draw7%62%26%87%
Olympiacos win3%50%48%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

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