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GNK Dinamo vs Sturm Graz: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

GNK Dinamo14th, 4 pts
–Matchday 8
Sturm Graz26th, 1 pt
48%GNK Dinamo win
25%Draw
27%Sturm Graz win

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Sturm Graz 27%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 56%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: throughSturm Graz: top 8Sturm Graz: through
Now8%76%1%46%
GNK Dinamo win13%90%<1%33%
Draw4%71%1%47%
Sturm Graz win2%56%4%71%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
34%GNK Dinamo clean sheet
22%Sturm Graz clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

GNK Dinamo

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DHapoel Beer-Sheva A0–0
  2. MD2WAnderlecht H1–0
  3. MD3N.E.C. Nijmegen H22 October
  4. MD4Sunderland A5 November
  5. MD5Leverkusen H26 November
  6. MD6Rennes A10 December
  7. MD7AZ Alkmaar A21 January
  8. MD8Sturm Graz H this match28 January

Sturm Graz

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1DRennes H0–0
  2. MD2LBournemouth A0–3
  3. MD3Marseille H22 October
  4. MD4Celje H5 November
  5. MD5Hoffenheim A26 November
  6. MD6AZ Alkmaar A10 December
  7. MD7OFI Crete H21 January
  8. MD8GNK Dinamo A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz?

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 48% chance of winning and Sturm Graz 27%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for GNK Dinamo and 1.1 for Sturm Graz, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for GNK Dinamo?

GNK Dinamo's qualification chance is 76% right now. A win would make it 90%, a draw 71% and a defeat 56%.

What does this match mean for Sturm Graz?

Sturm Graz's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 71%, a draw 47% and a defeat 33%.

When is GNK Dinamo vs Sturm Graz played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →