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Celta vs Lillestrøm: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Celta29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Lillestrøm23rd, 1 pt
66%Celta win
20%Draw
14%Lillestrøm win

The model gives Celta a 66% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Lillestrøm 14%. Celta's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 65%, a defeat to 26%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 18% now: a win would take it to 44%, a defeat to 11%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCelta: top 8Celta: throughLillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: through
Now2%54%<1%18%
Celta win3%65%<1%11%
Draw1%39%<1%21%
Lillestrøm win<1%26%1%44%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.0 – 0.8Expected goals
49%Both teams score
54%3 or more goals
44%Celta clean sheet
13%Lillestrøm clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Celta

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LOmonia A0–1
  2. MD2LJuventus H1–2
  3. MD3Celtic A22 October
  4. MD4Union SG H5 November
  5. MD5Bournemouth H26 November
  6. MD6Marseille A10 December
  7. MD7Hapoel Beer-Sheva A21 January
  8. MD8Lillestrøm H this match28 January

Lillestrøm

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTorreense H1–2
  2. MD2DSparta Praha A1–1
  3. MD3Real Sociedad H22 October
  4. MD4Viktoria Plzeň H5 November
  5. MD5Lyon A26 November
  6. MD6Levski Sofia A10 December
  7. MD7Bournemouth H21 January
  8. MD8Celta A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Celta Vigo vs Lillestrøm?

The model gives Celta a 66% chance of winning and Lillestrøm 14%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Lillestrøm?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Celta and 0.8 for Lillestrøm, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.

What does this match mean for Celta?

Celta's qualification chance is 54% right now. A win would make it 65%, a draw 39% and a defeat 26%.

What does this match mean for Lillestrøm?

Lillestrøm's qualification chance is 18% right now. A win would make it 44%, a draw 21% and a defeat 11%.

When is Celta vs Lillestrøm played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →