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Celje vs Olympiacos: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Celje35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Olympiacos10th, 6 pts
20%Celje win
23%Draw
57%Olympiacos win

The model gives Celje a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Olympiacos 57%. Celje's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 40%, a defeat to 11%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCelje: top 8Celje: throughOlympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: through
Now<1%19%57%99%
Celje win1%40%34%96%
Draw<1%19%45%99%
Olympiacos win<1%11%70%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%Celje clean sheet
39%Olympiacos clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Celje

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LLeverkusen A0–2
  2. MD2LOmonia H0–3
  3. MD3Salzburg H22 October
  4. MD4Sturm Graz A5 November
  5. MD5Ferencváros A26 November
  6. MD6Olympiacos H this match10 December
  7. MD7Ararat-Armenia A21 January
  8. MD8N.E.C. Nijmegen H28 January

Olympiacos

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WJagiellonia H2–1
  2. MD2WMarseille A1–0
  3. MD3Sparta Praha H22 October
  4. MD4Rennes A5 November
  5. MD5Milan H26 November
  6. MD6Celje A this match10 December
  7. MD7Hoffenheim H21 January
  8. MD8Torreense A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Celje vs Olympiacos?

The model gives Celje a 20% chance of winning and Olympiacos 57%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Celje vs Olympiacos?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Celje and 1.8 for Olympiacos, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Celje?

Celje's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 40%, a draw 19% and a defeat 11%.

What does this match mean for Olympiacos?

Olympiacos's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 96%.

When is Celje vs Olympiacos played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →