Knockout Math
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Celje vs Olympiacos: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Celje31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Olympiacos13th, 3 pts
23%Celje win
25%Draw
52%Olympiacos win

The model gives Celje a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Olympiacos 52%. Celje's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 63%, a defeat to 29%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Celje: top 8Celje: throughOlympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: through
Now3%40%36%91%
Celje win8%63%19%79%
Draw2%40%27%88%
Olympiacos win1%29%49%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

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