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Viktoria Plzeň vs Jagiellonia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Viktoria Plzeň31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Jagiellonia17th, 3 pts
49%Viktoria Plzeň win
25%Draw
26%Jagiellonia win

The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 49% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Jagiellonia 26%. Viktoria Plzeň's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 49%, a defeat to 13%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 46%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeViktoria Plzeň: top 8Viktoria Plzeň: throughJagiellonia: top 8Jagiellonia: through
Now<1%33%4%59%
Viktoria Plzeň win1%49%1%46%
Draw<1%23%3%61%
Jagiellonia win<1%13%9%84%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
34%Viktoria Plzeň clean sheet
21%Jagiellonia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Viktoria Plzeň

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LUnion SG H0–3
  2. MD2LFerencváros A1–2
  3. MD3Levski Sofia H22 October
  4. MD4Lillestrøm A5 November
  5. MD5Benfica H26 November
  6. MD6Bournemouth A10 December
  7. MD7Real Sociedad A21 January
  8. MD8Jagiellonia H this match28 January

Jagiellonia

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LOlympiacos A1–2
  2. MD2WArarat-Armenia H3–1
  3. MD3Anderlecht H22 October
  4. MD4Levski Sofia A5 November
  5. MD5Sunderland A26 November
  6. MD6Crystal Palace H10 December
  7. MD7Lyon H21 January
  8. MD8Viktoria Plzeň A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Viktoria Plzeň vs Jagiellonia?

The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 49% chance of winning and Jagiellonia 26%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Viktoria Plzeň vs Jagiellonia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Viktoria Plzeň and 1.1 for Jagiellonia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Viktoria Plzeň?

Viktoria Plzeň's qualification chance is 33% right now. A win would make it 49%, a draw 23% and a defeat 13%.

What does this match mean for Jagiellonia?

Jagiellonia's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 84%, a draw 61% and a defeat 46%.

When is Viktoria Plzeň vs Jagiellonia played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →