Knockout Math
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Torreense vs Sunderland: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45

Torreense11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Sunderland16th, 3 pts
26%Torreense win
25%Draw
49%Sunderland win

The model gives Torreense a 26% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Sunderland 49%. Torreense's chance of going through is 60% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 48%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Torreense: top 8Torreense: throughSunderland: top 8Sunderland: through
Now7%60%42%93%
Torreense win17%83%22%86%
Draw6%61%33%92%
Sunderland win3%48%57%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%

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