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Sparta Praha vs Rennes: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Sparta Praha11th, 4 pts
–Matchday 8
Rennes13th, 4 pts
39%Sparta Praha win
26%Draw
34%Rennes win

The model gives Sparta Praha a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Rennes 34%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 66%. Rennes's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 84%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSparta Praha: top 8Sparta Praha: throughRennes: top 8Rennes: through
Now11%80%21%91%
Sparta Praha win20%94%9%84%
Draw7%78%16%92%
Rennes win4%66%37%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Sparta Praha clean sheet
26%Rennes clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sparta Praha

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WArarat-Armenia A4–1
  2. MD2DLillestrøm H1–1
  3. MD3Olympiacos A22 October
  4. MD4Bournemouth H5 November
  5. MD5AZ Alkmaar H26 November
  6. MD6Salzburg A10 December
  7. MD7Crystal Palace A21 January
  8. MD8Rennes H this match28 January

Rennes

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DSturm Graz A0–0
  2. MD2WOFI Crete H2–1
  3. MD3Juventus A22 October
  4. MD4Olympiacos H5 November
  5. MD5N.E.C. Nijmegen A26 November
  6. MD6GNK Dinamo H10 December
  7. MD7Omonia H21 January
  8. MD8Sparta Praha A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sparta Prague vs Rennes?

The model gives Sparta Praha a 39% chance of winning and Rennes 34%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs Rennes?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sparta Praha and 1.2 for Rennes, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sparta Praha?

Sparta Praha's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 78% and a defeat 66%.

What does this match mean for Rennes?

Rennes's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 92% and a defeat 84%.

When is Sparta Praha vs Rennes played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →