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Lech Poznań vs Torreense: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00

Lech Poznań36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 7
Torreense19th, 3 pts
49%Lech Poznań win
25%Draw
25%Torreense win

The model gives Lech Poznań a 49% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Torreense 25%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 30%, a defeat to 6%. Torreense's chance of going through is 56% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 42%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLech Poznań: top 8Lech Poznań: throughTorreense: top 8Torreense: through
Now<1%19%3%56%
Lech Poznań win<1%30%1%42%
Draw<1%11%2%57%
Torreense win0%6%7%83%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
35%Lech Poznań clean sheet
21%Torreense clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lech Poznań

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -8

  1. MD1LCrystal Palace A0–4
  2. MD2LLeverkusen H0–4
  3. MD3Sunderland H22 October
  4. MD4Benfica A5 November
  5. MD5Union SG A26 November
  6. MD6Ferencváros H10 December
  7. MD7Torreense H this match21 January
  8. MD8OFI Crete A28 January

Torreense

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1WLillestrøm A2–1
  2. MD2LSunderland H1–2
  3. MD3Ferencváros A22 October
  4. MD4Ararat-Armenia H5 November
  5. MD5Celtic H26 November
  6. MD6Real Sociedad A10 December
  7. MD7Lech Poznań A this match21 January
  8. MD8Olympiacos H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lech Poznań vs Torreense?

The model gives Lech Poznań a 49% chance of winning and Torreense 25%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lech Poznań vs Torreense?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lech Poznań and 1.1 for Torreense, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lech Poznań?

Lech Poznań's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 30%, a draw 11% and a defeat 6%.

What does this match mean for Torreense?

Torreense's qualification chance is 56% right now. A win would make it 83%, a draw 57% and a defeat 42%.

When is Lech Poznań vs Torreense played?

Thursday 21 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →