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Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Benfica3rd, 6 pts
–Matchday 8
AZ Alkmaar20th, 3 pts
61%Benfica win
22%Draw
17%AZ Alkmaar win

The model gives Benfica a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and AZ Alkmaar 17%. Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 77%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 81%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBenfica: top 8Benfica: throughAZ Alkmaar: top 8AZ Alkmaar: through
Now91%100%13%86%
Benfica win96%100%7%81%
Draw86%100%14%89%
AZ Alkmaar win77%>99%33%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
41%Benfica clean sheet
15%AZ Alkmaar clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Benfica

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WMilan A2–0
  2. MD2WCeltic H4–1
  3. MD3Omonia A22 October
  4. MD4Lech Poznań H5 November
  5. MD5Viktoria Plzeň A26 November
  6. MD6OFI Crete H10 December
  7. MD7N.E.C. Nijmegen A21 January
  8. MD8AZ Alkmaar H this match28 January

AZ Alkmaar

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LSunderland A0–1
  2. MD2WHapoel Beer-Sheva H2–1
  3. MD3Ararat-Armenia A22 October
  4. MD4Juventus H5 November
  5. MD5Sparta Praha A26 November
  6. MD6Sturm Graz H10 December
  7. MD7GNK Dinamo H21 January
  8. MD8Benfica A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?

The model gives Benfica a 61% chance of winning and AZ Alkmaar 17%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Benfica and 0.9 for AZ Alkmaar, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Benfica?

Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 86% and a defeat 77%.

What does this match mean for AZ Alkmaar?

AZ Alkmaar's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 89% and a defeat 81%.

When is Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →