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Marseille vs Anderlecht: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Marseille32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Anderlecht28th, 0 pts
59%Marseille win
23%Draw
18%Anderlecht win

The model gives Marseille a 59% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Anderlecht 18%. Marseille's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 42%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 65%, a defeat to 28%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMarseille: top 8Marseille: throughAnderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: through
Now4%68%1%38%
Marseille win6%80%<1%28%
Draw1%56%1%41%
Anderlecht win<1%42%4%65%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
40%Marseille clean sheet
16%Anderlecht clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Marseille

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LBeşiktaş A1–4
  2. MD2LOlympiacos H0–1
  3. MD3Sturm Graz A22 October
  4. MD4Leverkusen A5 November
  5. MD5Levski Sofia H26 November
  6. MD6Celta H10 December
  7. MD7Celtic A21 January
  8. MD8Anderlecht H this match28 January

Anderlecht

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LLyon H1–2
  2. MD2LGNK Dinamo A0–1
  3. MD3Jagiellonia A22 October
  4. MD4Salzburg H5 November
  5. MD5OFI Crete A26 November
  6. MD6Hoffenheim H10 December
  7. MD7Sunderland H21 January
  8. MD8Marseille A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Marseille vs Anderlecht?

The model gives Marseille a 59% chance of winning and Anderlecht 18%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Anderlecht?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Marseille and 0.9 for Anderlecht, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Marseille?

Marseille's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 56% and a defeat 42%.

What does this match mean for Anderlecht?

Anderlecht's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 65%, a draw 41% and a defeat 28%.

When is Marseille vs Anderlecht played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →