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OFI Crete vs Lech Poznań: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

OFI Crete18th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Lech Poznań36th, 0 pts
41%OFI Crete win
26%Draw
32%Lech Poznań win

The model gives OFI Crete a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lech Poznań 32%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 31%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 38%, a defeat to 8%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeOFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: throughLech Poznań: top 8Lech Poznań: through
Now2%52%<1%19%
OFI Crete win4%73%<1%8%
Draw1%44%<1%14%
Lech Poznań win<1%31%1%38%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
30%OFI Crete clean sheet
25%Lech Poznań clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

OFI Crete

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WHoffenheim H2–0
  2. MD2LRennes A1–2
  3. MD3Leverkusen H22 October
  4. MD4Hapoel Beer-Sheva A5 November
  5. MD5Anderlecht H26 November
  6. MD6Benfica A10 December
  7. MD7Sturm Graz A21 January
  8. MD8Lech Poznań H this match28 January

Lech Poznań

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -8

  1. MD1LCrystal Palace A0–4
  2. MD2LLeverkusen H0–4
  3. MD3Sunderland H22 October
  4. MD4Benfica A5 November
  5. MD5Union SG A26 November
  6. MD6Ferencváros H10 December
  7. MD7Torreense H21 January
  8. MD8OFI Crete A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in OFI Crete vs Lech Poznań?

The model gives OFI Crete a 41% chance of winning and Lech Poznań 32%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in OFI Crete vs Lech Poznań?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for OFI Crete and 1.2 for Lech Poznań, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for OFI Crete?

OFI Crete's qualification chance is 52% right now. A win would make it 73%, a draw 44% and a defeat 31%.

What does this match mean for Lech Poznań?

Lech Poznań's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 38%, a draw 14% and a defeat 8%.

When is OFI Crete vs Lech Poznań played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →