Knockout Math
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OFI Crete vs Lech Poznań: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

OFI Crete9th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Lech Poznań35th, 0 pts
37%OFI Crete win
26%Draw
36%Lech Poznań win

The model gives OFI Crete a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lech Poznań 36%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 49% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 31%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 52%, a defeat to 18%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: throughLech Poznań: top 8Lech Poznań: through
Now4%49%2%33%
OFI Crete win8%70%<1%18%
Draw2%44%1%28%
Lech Poznań win1%31%4%52%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Other matchday 8 fixtures