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Celje vs N.E.C. Nijmegen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Celje35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
N.E.C. Nijmegen27th, 1 pt
32%Celje win
26%Draw
41%N.E.C. Nijmegen win

The model gives Celje a 32% chance of winning, a draw 26% and N.E.C. Nijmegen 41%. Celje's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 36%, a defeat to 8%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCelje: top 8Celje: throughN.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: through
Now<1%19%2%53%
Celje win1%36%<1%33%
Draw<1%15%1%47%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win<1%8%5%74%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
25%Celje clean sheet
30%N.E.C. Nijmegen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Celje

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LLeverkusen A0–2
  2. MD2LOmonia H0–3
  3. MD3Salzburg H22 October
  4. MD4Sturm Graz A5 November
  5. MD5Ferencváros A26 November
  6. MD6Olympiacos H10 December
  7. MD7Ararat-Armenia A21 January
  8. MD8N.E.C. Nijmegen H this match28 January

N.E.C. Nijmegen

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LJuventus A0–5
  2. MD2DLevski Sofia H1–1
  3. MD3GNK Dinamo A22 October
  4. MD4Omonia H5 November
  5. MD5Rennes H26 November
  6. MD6Ararat-Armenia A10 December
  7. MD7Benfica H21 January
  8. MD8Celje A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Celje vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?

The model gives Celje a 32% chance of winning and N.E.C. Nijmegen 41%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Celje vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Celje and 1.4 for N.E.C. Nijmegen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Celje?

Celje's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 36%, a draw 15% and a defeat 8%.

What does this match mean for N.E.C. Nijmegen?

N.E.C. Nijmegen's qualification chance is 53% right now. A win would make it 74%, a draw 47% and a defeat 33%.

When is Celje vs N.E.C. Nijmegen played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →