Omonia vs Beşiktaş: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00
The model gives Omonia a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Beşiktaş 46%. Omonia's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 71%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Omonia: top 8 | Omonia: through | Beşiktaş: top 8 | Beşiktaş: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 9% | 82% | 46% | 98% |
| Omonia win | 20% | 97% | 25% | 95% |
| Draw | 7% | 83% | 37% | 98% |
| Beşiktaş win | 3% | 71% | 63% | >99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Beşiktaş
- MD1WMarseille H4–1
- MD2WHoffenheim A3–2
- MD3Crystal Palace H22 October
- MD4Celtic A5 November
- MD5Hapoel Beer-Sheva H26 November
- MD6Leverkusen A10 December
- MD7Union SG H21 January
- MD8Omonia A this match28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Omonia vs Beşiktaş?
The model gives Omonia a 28% chance of winning and Beşiktaş 46%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Omonia vs Beşiktaş?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Omonia and 1.5 for Beşiktaş, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Omonia?
Omonia's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 83% and a defeat 71%.
What does this match mean for Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 95%.
When is Omonia vs Beşiktaş played?
Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Milan – Ararat-Armenia
- Sparta Praha – Rennes
- Bournemouth – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Crystal Palace
- Viktoria Plzeň – Jagiellonia
- GNK Dinamo – Sturm Graz
- Juventus – Real Sociedad
- Celje – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete – Lech Poznań
- Marseille – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Celtic
- Celta – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Olympiacos
- Benfica – AZ Alkmaar
- Sunderland – Levski Sofia
- Hoffenheim – Ferencváros