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Olympiacos vs Milan: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Olympiacos10th, 6 pts
–Matchday 5
Milan16th, 3 pts
32%Olympiacos win
26%Draw
41%Milan win

The model gives Olympiacos a 32% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Milan 41%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 98%. Milan's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeOlympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: throughMilan: top 8Milan: through
Now57%99%55%99%
Olympiacos win79%100%35%98%
Draw56%99%49%99%
Milan win41%98%75%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
25%Olympiacos clean sheet
30%Milan clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Olympiacos

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WJagiellonia H2–1
  2. MD2WMarseille A1–0
  3. MD3Sparta Praha H22 October
  4. MD4Rennes A5 November
  5. MD5Milan H this match26 November
  6. MD6Celje A10 December
  7. MD7Hoffenheim H21 January
  8. MD8Torreense A28 January

Milan

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1LBenfica H0–2
  2. MD2WSalzburg A4–0
  3. MD3Bournemouth A22 October
  4. MD4Ferencváros H5 November
  5. MD5Olympiacos A this match26 November
  6. MD6Sunderland H10 December
  7. MD7Levski Sofia A21 January
  8. MD8Ararat-Armenia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Olympiacos vs Milan?

The model gives Olympiacos a 32% chance of winning and Milan 41%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Olympiacos vs Milan?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Olympiacos and 1.4 for Milan, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Olympiacos?

Olympiacos's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

What does this match mean for Milan?

Milan's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Olympiacos vs Milan played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →