Milan vs Ararat-Armenia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00
Milan30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Ararat-Armenia33rd, 0 pts
87%Milan win
9%Draw
4%Ararat-Armenia win
The model gives Milan a 87% chance of winning, a draw 9% and Ararat-Armenia 4%. Milan's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 78%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 33%, a defeat to 9%. The most likely score is 3–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Milan: top 8 | Milan: through | Ararat-Armenia: top 8 | Ararat-Armenia: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 46% | 95% | <1% | 10% |
| Milan win | 49% | 96% | <1% | 9% |
| Draw | 25% | 87% | <1% | 16% |
| Ararat-Armenia win | 18% | 78% | 1% | 33% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
3–013%
2–013%
4–010%
1–08%
3–17%
2–17%
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Sparta Praha – Rennes
- Bournemouth – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Crystal Palace
- Viktoria Plzeň – Jagiellonia
- GNK Dinamo – Sturm Graz
- Juventus – Real Sociedad
- Celje – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete – Lech Poznań
- Marseille – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Leverkusen
- Omonia – Beşiktaş
- Union SG – Celtic
- Celta – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Olympiacos
- Benfica – AZ Alkmaar
- Sunderland – Levski Sofia
- Hoffenheim – Ferencváros