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Milan vs Ararat-Armenia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Milan16th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Ararat-Armenia34th, 0 pts
88%Milan win
8%Draw
3%Ararat-Armenia win

The model gives Milan a 88% chance of winning, a draw 8% and Ararat-Armenia 3%. Milan's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 93%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 28%, a defeat to 5%. The most likely score is 3–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMilan: top 8Milan: throughArarat-Armenia: top 8Ararat-Armenia: through
Now55%99%<1%6%
Milan win58%99%0%5%
Draw32%97%0%10%
Ararat-Armenia win22%93%<1%28%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

3.2 – 0.5Expected goals
39%Both teams score
72%3 or more goals
59%Milan clean sheet
4%Ararat-Armenia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

3–013%
2–012%
4–011%
1–08%
3–17%
5–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Milan

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1LBenfica H0–2
  2. MD2WSalzburg A4–0
  3. MD3Bournemouth A22 October
  4. MD4Ferencváros H5 November
  5. MD5Olympiacos A26 November
  6. MD6Sunderland H10 December
  7. MD7Levski Sofia A21 January
  8. MD8Ararat-Armenia H this match28 January

Ararat-Armenia

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LSparta Praha H1–4
  2. MD2LJagiellonia A1–3
  3. MD3AZ Alkmaar H22 October
  4. MD4Torreense A5 November
  5. MD5Salzburg A26 November
  6. MD6N.E.C. Nijmegen H10 December
  7. MD7Celje H21 January
  8. MD8Milan A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Milan vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model gives Milan a 88% chance of winning and Ararat-Armenia 3%, with a draw at 8%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 3–0 (13%), followed by 2–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Milan vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 39% chance. Expected goals are 3.2 for Milan and 0.5 for Ararat-Armenia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 72% of cases.

What does this match mean for Milan?

Milan's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

What does this match mean for Ararat-Armenia?

Ararat-Armenia's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 28%, a draw 10% and a defeat 5%.

When is Milan vs Ararat-Armenia played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →