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Lyon vs Leverkusen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Lyon8th, 6 pts
–Matchday 8
Leverkusen2nd, 6 pts
33%Lyon win
26%Draw
40%Leverkusen win

The model gives Lyon a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Leverkusen 40%. Lyon's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 71%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLyon: top 8Lyon: throughLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: through
Now59%99%83%>99%
Lyon win79%>99%71%>99%
Draw56%99%82%>99%
Leverkusen win44%98%94%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
25%Lyon clean sheet
30%Leverkusen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lyon

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAnderlecht A2–1
  2. MD2WCrystal Palace H3–2
  3. MD3Hoffenheim A22 October
  4. MD4Real Sociedad A5 November
  5. MD5Lillestrøm H26 November
  6. MD6Union SG H10 December
  7. MD7Jagiellonia A21 January
  8. MD8Leverkusen H this match28 January

Leverkusen

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WCelje H2–0
  2. MD2WLech Poznań A4–0
  3. MD3OFI Crete A22 October
  4. MD4Marseille H5 November
  5. MD5GNK Dinamo A26 November
  6. MD6Beşiktaş H10 December
  7. MD7Salzburg H21 January
  8. MD8Lyon A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model gives Lyon a 33% chance of winning and Leverkusen 40%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lyon and 1.4 for Leverkusen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lyon?

Lyon's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

What does this match mean for Leverkusen?

Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 82% and a defeat 71%.

When is Lyon vs Leverkusen played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →