Sunderland vs Levski Sofia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00
The model gives Sunderland a 65% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Levski Sofia 14%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 24% now: a win would take it to 53%, a defeat to 17%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Sunderland: top 8 | Sunderland: through | Levski Sofia: top 8 | Levski Sofia: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 55% | 99% | <1% | 24% |
| Sunderland win | 66% | >99% | <1% | 17% |
| Draw | 40% | 98% | <1% | 29% |
| Levski Sofia win | 28% | 96% | 2% | 53% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Sunderland
- MD1WAZ Alkmaar H1–0
- MD2WTorreense A2–1
- MD3Lech Poznań A22 October
- MD4GNK Dinamo H5 November
- MD5Jagiellonia H26 November
- MD6Milan A10 December
- MD7Anderlecht A21 January
- MD8Levski Sofia H this match28 January
Levski Sofia
- MD1LSalzburg H0–1
- MD2DN.E.C. Nijmegen A1–1
- MD3Viktoria Plzeň A22 October
- MD4Jagiellonia H5 November
- MD5Marseille A26 November
- MD6Lillestrøm H10 December
- MD7Milan H21 January
- MD8Sunderland A this match28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Sunderland vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives Sunderland a 65% chance of winning and Levski Sofia 14%, with a draw at 20%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sunderland and 0.8 for Levski Sofia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.
What does this match mean for Sunderland?
Sunderland's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.
What does this match mean for Levski Sofia?
Levski Sofia's qualification chance is 24% right now. A win would make it 53%, a draw 29% and a defeat 17%.
When is Sunderland vs Levski Sofia played?
Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Milan – Ararat-Armenia
- Sparta Praha – Rennes
- Bournemouth – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Crystal Palace
- Viktoria Plzeň – Jagiellonia
- GNK Dinamo – Sturm Graz
- Juventus – Real Sociedad
- Celje – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete – Lech Poznań
- Marseille – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Leverkusen
- Omonia – Beşiktaş
- Union SG – Celtic
- Celta – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Olympiacos
- Benfica – AZ Alkmaar
- Hoffenheim – Ferencváros