Knockout Math
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Sunderland vs Levski Sofia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Sunderland16th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Levski Sofia27th, 0 pts
63%Sunderland win
21%Draw
16%Levski Sofia win

The model gives Sunderland a 63% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Levski Sofia 16%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 82%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 21% now: a win would take it to 44%, a defeat to 14%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sunderland: top 8Sunderland: throughLevski Sofia: top 8Levski Sofia: through
Now42%93%1%21%
Sunderland win52%97%<1%14%
Draw30%90%<1%22%
Levski Sofia win19%82%3%44%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

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