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Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Torreense19th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Ararat-Armenia34th, 0 pts
56%Torreense win
24%Draw
21%Ararat-Armenia win

The model gives Torreense a 56% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Ararat-Armenia 21%. Torreense's chance of going through is 56% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 30%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 17%, a defeat to 2%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeTorreense: top 8Torreense: throughArarat-Armenia: top 8Ararat-Armenia: through
Now3%56%<1%6%
Torreense win4%71%0%2%
Draw1%44%0%5%
Ararat-Armenia win<1%30%<1%17%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
38%Torreense clean sheet
18%Ararat-Armenia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Torreense

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1WLillestrøm A2–1
  2. MD2LSunderland H1–2
  3. MD3Ferencváros A22 October
  4. MD4Ararat-Armenia H this match5 November
  5. MD5Celtic H26 November
  6. MD6Real Sociedad A10 December
  7. MD7Lech Poznań A21 January
  8. MD8Olympiacos H28 January

Ararat-Armenia

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LSparta Praha H1–4
  2. MD2LJagiellonia A1–3
  3. MD3AZ Alkmaar H22 October
  4. MD4Torreense A this match5 November
  5. MD5Salzburg A26 November
  6. MD6N.E.C. Nijmegen H10 December
  7. MD7Celje H21 January
  8. MD8Milan A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model gives Torreense a 56% chance of winning and Ararat-Armenia 21%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Torreense and 1.0 for Ararat-Armenia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Torreense?

Torreense's qualification chance is 56% right now. A win would make it 71%, a draw 44% and a defeat 30%.

What does this match mean for Ararat-Armenia?

Ararat-Armenia's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 17%, a draw 5% and a defeat 2%.

When is Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →