Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
Torreense11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Ararat-Armenia33rd, 0 pts
53%Torreense win
24%Draw
23%Ararat-Armenia win
The model gives Torreense a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Ararat-Armenia 23%. Torreense's chance of going through is 60% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 37%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 24%, a defeat to 5%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Torreense: top 8 | Torreense: through | Ararat-Armenia: top 8 | Ararat-Armenia: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 7% | 60% | <1% | 10% |
| Torreense win | 11% | 75% | <1% | 5% |
| Draw | 4% | 50% | <1% | 9% |
| Ararat-Armenia win | 2% | 37% | 1% | 24% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
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