Knockout Math
Live
EN

Real Sociedad vs Torreense: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Real Sociedad22nd, 1 pt
–Matchday 6
Torreense19th, 3 pts
68%Real Sociedad win
19%Draw
13%Torreense win

The model gives Real Sociedad a 68% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Torreense 13%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 41%. Torreense's chance of going through is 56% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 48%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: throughTorreense: top 8Torreense: through
Now5%72%3%56%
Real Sociedad win7%81%1%48%
Draw1%58%3%64%
Torreense win<1%41%10%88%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.1 – 0.8Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
45%Real Sociedad clean sheet
12%Torreense clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Real Sociedad

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBournemouth H1–2
  2. MD2DUnion SG A1–1
  3. MD3Lillestrøm A22 October
  4. MD4Lyon H5 November
  5. MD5Crystal Palace A26 November
  6. MD6Torreense H this match10 December
  7. MD7Viktoria Plzeň H21 January
  8. MD8Juventus A28 January

Torreense

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1WLillestrøm A2–1
  2. MD2LSunderland H1–2
  3. MD3Ferencváros A22 October
  4. MD4Ararat-Armenia H5 November
  5. MD5Celtic H26 November
  6. MD6Real Sociedad A this match10 December
  7. MD7Lech Poznań A21 January
  8. MD8Olympiacos H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Real Sociedad vs Torreense?

The model gives Real Sociedad a 68% chance of winning and Torreense 13%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Torreense?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 2.1 for Real Sociedad and 0.8 for Torreense, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for Real Sociedad?

Real Sociedad's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 81%, a draw 58% and a defeat 41%.

What does this match mean for Torreense?

Torreense's qualification chance is 56% right now. A win would make it 88%, a draw 64% and a defeat 48%.

When is Real Sociedad vs Torreense played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →