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Bournemouth vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Bournemouth5th, 6 pts
–Matchday 8
Hapoel Beer-Sheva24th, 1 pt
70%Bournemouth win
19%Draw
12%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win

The model gives Bournemouth a 70% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 12%. Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 43%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 20% now: a win would take it to 48%, a defeat to 14%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: throughHapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8Hapoel Beer-Sheva: through
Now70%>99%<1%20%
Bournemouth win79%100%<1%14%
Draw57%99%<1%24%
Hapoel Beer-Sheva win43%98%2%48%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.2 – 0.8Expected goals
47%Both teams score
56%3 or more goals
46%Bournemouth clean sheet
11%Hapoel Beer-Sheva clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Bournemouth

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WReal Sociedad A2–1
  2. MD2WSturm Graz H3–0
  3. MD3Milan H22 October
  4. MD4Sparta Praha A5 November
  5. MD5Celta A26 November
  6. MD6Viktoria Plzeň H10 December
  7. MD7Lillestrøm A21 January
  8. MD8Hapoel Beer-Sheva H this match28 January

Hapoel Beer-Sheva

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1DGNK Dinamo H0–0
  2. MD2LAZ Alkmaar A1–2
  3. MD3Union SG A22 October
  4. MD4OFI Crete H5 November
  5. MD5Beşiktaş A26 November
  6. MD6Juventus H10 December
  7. MD7Celta H21 January
  8. MD8Bournemouth A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bournemouth vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

The model gives Bournemouth a 70% chance of winning and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 12%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 2.2 for Bournemouth and 0.8 for Hapoel Beer-Sheva, and the match has 3 or more goals in 56% of cases.

What does this match mean for Bournemouth?

Bournemouth's top-8 chance is 70% right now. A win would make it 79%, a draw 57% and a defeat 43%.

What does this match mean for Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

Hapoel Beer-Sheva's qualification chance is 20% right now. A win would make it 48%, a draw 24% and a defeat 14%.

When is Bournemouth vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →