Knockout Math
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Rennes vs Olympiacos: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Rennes17th, 1 pts
–Matchday 4
Olympiacos13th, 3 pts
41%Rennes win
26%Draw
33%Olympiacos win

The model gives Rennes a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Olympiacos 33%. Rennes's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 71%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 84%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Rennes: top 8Rennes: throughOlympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: through
Now23%83%36%91%
Rennes win37%94%22%84%
Draw17%82%34%92%
Olympiacos win9%71%56%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

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