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Rennes vs Olympiacos: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Rennes13th, 4 pts
–Matchday 4
Olympiacos10th, 6 pts
40%Rennes win
26%Draw
34%Olympiacos win

The model gives Rennes a 40% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Olympiacos 34%. Rennes's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 83%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeRennes: top 8Rennes: throughOlympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: through
Now21%91%57%99%
Rennes win35%98%41%98%
Draw15%90%56%99%
Olympiacos win8%83%78%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Rennes clean sheet
26%Olympiacos clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Rennes

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DSturm Graz A0–0
  2. MD2WOFI Crete H2–1
  3. MD3Juventus A22 October
  4. MD4Olympiacos H this match5 November
  5. MD5N.E.C. Nijmegen A26 November
  6. MD6GNK Dinamo H10 December
  7. MD7Omonia H21 January
  8. MD8Sparta Praha A28 January

Olympiacos

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WJagiellonia H2–1
  2. MD2WMarseille A1–0
  3. MD3Sparta Praha H22 October
  4. MD4Rennes A this match5 November
  5. MD5Milan H26 November
  6. MD6Celje A10 December
  7. MD7Hoffenheim H21 January
  8. MD8Torreense A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Rennes vs Olympiacos?

The model gives Rennes a 40% chance of winning and Olympiacos 34%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Rennes vs Olympiacos?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rennes and 1.2 for Olympiacos, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Rennes?

Rennes's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 90% and a defeat 83%.

What does this match mean for Olympiacos?

Olympiacos's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Rennes vs Olympiacos played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →