Torreense vs Celtic: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
The model gives Torreense a 30% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Celtic 44%. Torreense's chance of going through is 56% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 40%. Celtic's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 56%, a defeat to 19%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Torreense: top 8 | Torreense: through | Celtic: top 8 | Celtic: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 56% | 1% | 38% |
| Torreense win | 6% | 81% | <1% | 19% |
| Draw | 1% | 55% | <1% | 31% |
| Celtic win | <1% | 40% | 2% | 56% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Torreense
- MD1WLillestrøm A2–1
- MD2LSunderland H1–2
- MD3Ferencváros A22 October
- MD4Ararat-Armenia H5 November
- MD5Celtic H this match26 November
- MD6Real Sociedad A10 December
- MD7Lech Poznań A21 January
- MD8Olympiacos H28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Torreense vs Celtic?
The model gives Torreense a 30% chance of winning and Celtic 44%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Torreense vs Celtic?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Torreense and 1.4 for Celtic, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Torreense?
Torreense's qualification chance is 56% right now. A win would make it 81%, a draw 55% and a defeat 40%.
What does this match mean for Celtic?
Celtic's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 56%, a draw 31% and a defeat 19%.
When is Torreense vs Celtic played?
Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz