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Salzburg vs Crystal Palace: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Salzburg21st, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Crystal Palace15th, 3 pts
34%Salzburg win
26%Draw
39%Crystal Palace win

The model gives Salzburg a 34% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Crystal Palace 39%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. Crystal Palace's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSalzburg: top 8Salzburg: throughCrystal Palace: top 8Crystal Palace: through
Now12%84%27%93%
Salzburg win24%95%12%86%
Draw8%84%21%92%
Crystal Palace win4%74%44%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Salzburg clean sheet
29%Crystal Palace clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Salzburg

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1WLevski Sofia A1–0
  2. MD2LMilan H0–4
  3. MD3Celje A22 October
  4. MD4Anderlecht A5 November
  5. MD5Ararat-Armenia H26 November
  6. MD6Sparta Praha H10 December
  7. MD7Leverkusen A21 January
  8. MD8Crystal Palace H this match28 January

Crystal Palace

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WLech Poznań H4–0
  2. MD2LLyon A2–3
  3. MD3Beşiktaş A22 October
  4. MD4Hoffenheim H5 November
  5. MD5Real Sociedad H26 November
  6. MD6Jagiellonia A10 December
  7. MD7Sparta Praha H21 January
  8. MD8Salzburg A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in RB Salzburg vs Crystal Palace?

The model gives Salzburg a 34% chance of winning and Crystal Palace 39%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in RB Salzburg vs Crystal Palace?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Salzburg and 1.3 for Crystal Palace, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Salzburg?

Salzburg's qualification chance is 84% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 84% and a defeat 74%.

What does this match mean for Crystal Palace?

Crystal Palace's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 92% and a defeat 86%.

When is Salzburg vs Crystal Palace played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →