Knockout Math
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Juventus vs Real Sociedad: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Juventus1st, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Real Sociedad22nd, 0 pts
60%Juventus win
22%Draw
18%Real Sociedad win

The model gives Juventus a 60% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Real Sociedad 18%. Juventus's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 63%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Juventus: top 8Juventus: throughReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: through
Now81%99%12%71%
Juventus win89%>99%7%63%
Draw73%99%13%75%
Real Sociedad win62%98%29%90%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Other matchday 8 fixtures