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Juventus vs Real Sociedad: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Juventus1st, 6 pts
–Matchday 8
Real Sociedad22nd, 1 pt
63%Juventus win
21%Draw
16%Real Sociedad win

The model gives Juventus a 63% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Real Sociedad 16%. Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 65%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeJuventus: top 8Juventus: throughReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: through
Now89%100%5%72%
Juventus win95%100%2%65%
Draw83%100%5%77%
Real Sociedad win74%>99%18%91%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
49%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
43%Juventus clean sheet
14%Real Sociedad clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Juventus

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WN.E.C. Nijmegen H5–0
  2. MD2WCelta A2–1
  3. MD3Rennes H22 October
  4. MD4AZ Alkmaar A5 November
  5. MD5Omonia H26 November
  6. MD6Hapoel Beer-Sheva A10 December
  7. MD7Ferencváros A21 January
  8. MD8Real Sociedad H this match28 January

Real Sociedad

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBournemouth H1–2
  2. MD2DUnion SG A1–1
  3. MD3Lillestrøm A22 October
  4. MD4Lyon H5 November
  5. MD5Crystal Palace A26 November
  6. MD6Torreense H10 December
  7. MD7Viktoria Plzeň H21 January
  8. MD8Juventus A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Juventus vs Real Sociedad?

The model gives Juventus a 63% chance of winning and Real Sociedad 16%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Juventus vs Real Sociedad?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Juventus and 0.9 for Real Sociedad, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Juventus?

Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 83% and a defeat 74%.

What does this match mean for Real Sociedad?

Real Sociedad's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 77% and a defeat 65%.

When is Juventus vs Real Sociedad played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →