Olympiacos vs Hoffenheim: what's at stake in the Europa League?

Q: Who is favourite in Olympiacos vs Hoffenheim?

The model gives Olympiacos a 50% chance of winning and Hoffenheim 25%, with a draw at 25%.

Q: What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Q: Will both teams score in Olympiacos vs Hoffenheim?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Olympiacos and 1.0 for Hoffenheim, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

Q: What does this match mean for Olympiacos?

Olympiacos's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 97%.

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 18:45

Olympiacos10th, 6 pts

–Matchday 7

Hoffenheim30th, 0 pts

50%Olympiacos win

25%Draw

25%Hoffenheim win

The model gives Olympiacos a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Hoffenheim 25%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 35%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Outcome	Olympiacos: top 8	Olympiacos: through	Hoffenheim: top 8	Hoffenheim: through
Now	57%	99%	2%	47%
Olympiacos win	72%	>99%	<1%	35%
Draw	49%	99%	1%	47%
Hoffenheim win	36%	97%	5%	72%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals

52%Both teams score

49%3 or more goals

35%Olympiacos clean sheet

20%Hoffenheim clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%

1–011%

2–19%

2–09%

0–18%

0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Olympiacos

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

MD1WJagiellonia H2–1
MD2WMarseille A1–0
MD3Sparta Praha H22 October
MD4Rennes A5 November
MD5Milan H26 November
MD6Celje A10 December
MD7Hoffenheim H this match21 January
MD8Torreense A28 January

Hoffenheim

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

MD1LOFI Crete A0–2
MD2LBeşiktaş H2–3
MD3Lyon H22 October
MD4Crystal Palace A5 November
MD5Sturm Graz H26 November
MD6Anderlecht A10 December
MD7Olympiacos A this match21 January
MD8Ferencváros H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Olympiacos vs Hoffenheim?

The model gives Olympiacos a 50% chance of winning and Hoffenheim 25%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Olympiacos vs Hoffenheim?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Olympiacos and 1.0 for Hoffenheim, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Olympiacos?

Olympiacos's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 97%.

What does this match mean for Hoffenheim?

Hoffenheim's qualification chance is 47% right now. A win would make it 72%, a draw 47% and a defeat 35%.

When is Olympiacos vs Hoffenheim played?

Thursday 21 January, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 7).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 7 fixtures

Full matchday 7: what every team needs →