Knockout Math
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Marseille vs Olympiacos: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

Marseille32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Olympiacos13th, 3 pts
50%Marseille win
25%Draw
25%Olympiacos win

The model gives Marseille a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Olympiacos 25%. Marseille's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 68%. Olympiacos's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Marseille: top 8Marseille: throughOlympiacos: top 8Olympiacos: through
Now22%82%36%91%
Marseille win34%92%24%86%
Draw14%78%37%92%
Olympiacos win8%68%58%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

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