Union SG vs Celtic: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00
The model gives Union SG a 54% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Celtic 22%. Union SG's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 88%. Celtic's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 64%, a defeat to 28%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Union SG: top 8 | Union SG: through | Celtic: top 8 | Celtic: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 33% | 96% | 1% | 38% |
| Union SG win | 45% | 99% | <1% | 28% |
| Draw | 22% | 95% | 1% | 40% |
| Celtic win | 13% | 88% | 4% | 64% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Union SG
- MD1WViktoria Plzeň A3–0
- MD2DReal Sociedad H1–1
- MD3Hapoel Beer-Sheva H22 October
- MD4Celta A5 November
- MD5Lech Poznań H26 November
- MD6Lyon A10 December
- MD7Beşiktaş A21 January
- MD8Celtic H this match28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Celtic?
The model gives Union SG a 54% chance of winning and Celtic 22%, with a draw at 24%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Celtic?
The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Union SG and 1.0 for Celtic, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.
What does this match mean for Union SG?
Union SG's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 88%.
What does this match mean for Celtic?
Celtic's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 64%, a draw 40% and a defeat 28%.
When is Union SG vs Celtic played?
Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Milan – Ararat-Armenia
- Sparta Praha – Rennes
- Bournemouth – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Crystal Palace
- Viktoria Plzeň – Jagiellonia
- GNK Dinamo – Sturm Graz
- Juventus – Real Sociedad
- Celje – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete – Lech Poznań
- Marseille – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Leverkusen
- Omonia – Beşiktaş
- Celta – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Olympiacos
- Benfica – AZ Alkmaar
- Sunderland – Levski Sofia
- Hoffenheim – Ferencváros