Knockout Math
Live
EN

Hoffenheim vs Ferencváros: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Hoffenheim30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Ferencváros7th, 6 pts
48%Hoffenheim win
25%Draw
26%Ferencváros win

The model gives Hoffenheim a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Ferencváros 26%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 64%, a defeat to 27%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHoffenheim: top 8Hoffenheim: throughFerencváros: top 8Ferencváros: through
Now2%47%34%97%
Hoffenheim win3%64%20%95%
Draw1%38%34%98%
Ferencváros win<1%27%59%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
34%Hoffenheim clean sheet
21%Ferencváros clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hoffenheim

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LOFI Crete A0–2
  2. MD2LBeşiktaş H2–3
  3. MD3Lyon H22 October
  4. MD4Crystal Palace A5 November
  5. MD5Sturm Graz H26 November
  6. MD6Anderlecht A10 December
  7. MD7Olympiacos A21 January
  8. MD8Ferencváros H this match28 January

Ferencváros

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WCeltic A3–1
  2. MD2WViktoria Plzeň H2–1
  3. MD3Torreense H22 October
  4. MD4Milan A5 November
  5. MD5Celje H26 November
  6. MD6Lech Poznań A10 December
  7. MD7Juventus H21 January
  8. MD8Hoffenheim A this match28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hoffenheim vs Ferencváros?

The model gives Hoffenheim a 48% chance of winning and Ferencváros 26%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Hoffenheim vs Ferencváros?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hoffenheim and 1.1 for Ferencváros, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hoffenheim?

Hoffenheim's qualification chance is 47% right now. A win would make it 64%, a draw 38% and a defeat 27%.

What does this match mean for Ferencváros?

Ferencváros's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 95%.

When is Hoffenheim vs Ferencváros played?

Thursday 28 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 8).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 8 fixtures

Full matchday 8: what every team needs →