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GNK Dinamo vs Leverkusen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

GNK Dinamo14th, 4 pts
–Matchday 5
Leverkusen2nd, 6 pts
20%GNK Dinamo win
23%Draw
57%Leverkusen win

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Leverkusen 57%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 68%. Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 66%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: throughLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: through
Now8%76%83%>99%
GNK Dinamo win21%94%66%99%
Draw7%80%77%>99%
Leverkusen win4%68%92%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%GNK Dinamo clean sheet
39%Leverkusen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

GNK Dinamo

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DHapoel Beer-Sheva A0–0
  2. MD2WAnderlecht H1–0
  3. MD3N.E.C. Nijmegen H22 October
  4. MD4Sunderland A5 November
  5. MD5Leverkusen H this match26 November
  6. MD6Rennes A10 December
  7. MD7AZ Alkmaar A21 January
  8. MD8Sturm Graz H28 January

Leverkusen

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WCelje H2–0
  2. MD2WLech Poznań A4–0
  3. MD3OFI Crete A22 October
  4. MD4Marseille H5 November
  5. MD5GNK Dinamo A this match26 November
  6. MD6Beşiktaş H10 December
  7. MD7Salzburg H21 January
  8. MD8Lyon A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 20% chance of winning and Leverkusen 57%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for GNK Dinamo and 1.8 for Leverkusen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for GNK Dinamo?

GNK Dinamo's qualification chance is 76% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 80% and a defeat 68%.

What does this match mean for Leverkusen?

Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 92%, a draw 77% and a defeat 66%.

When is GNK Dinamo vs Leverkusen played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →