Ferencváros vs Celje: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
The model gives Ferencváros a 62% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Celje 16%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 89%. Celje's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 42%, a defeat to 12%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Ferencváros: top 8 | Ferencváros: through | Celje: top 8 | Celje: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 34% | 97% | <1% | 19% |
| Ferencváros win | 44% | >99% | <1% | 12% |
| Draw | 22% | 95% | <1% | 20% |
| Celje win | 13% | 89% | 1% | 42% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Ferencváros
- MD1WCeltic A3–1
- MD2WViktoria Plzeň H2–1
- MD3Torreense H22 October
- MD4Milan A5 November
- MD5Celje H this match26 November
- MD6Lech Poznań A10 December
- MD7Juventus H21 January
- MD8Hoffenheim A28 January
Celje
- MD1LLeverkusen A0–2
- MD2LOmonia H0–3
- MD3Salzburg H22 October
- MD4Sturm Graz A5 November
- MD5Ferencváros A this match26 November
- MD6Olympiacos H10 December
- MD7Ararat-Armenia A21 January
- MD8N.E.C. Nijmegen H28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Ferencváros vs Celje?
The model gives Ferencváros a 62% chance of winning and Celje 16%, with a draw at 22%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Ferencváros vs Celje?
The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ferencváros and 0.9 for Celje, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.
What does this match mean for Ferencváros?
Ferencváros's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 89%.
What does this match mean for Celje?
Celje's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 42%, a draw 20% and a defeat 12%.
When is Ferencváros vs Celje played?
Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz