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Marseille vs Levski Sofia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Marseille32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Levski Sofia25th, 1 pt
70%Marseille win
18%Draw
11%Levski Sofia win

The model gives Marseille a 70% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Levski Sofia 11%. Marseille's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 38%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 24% now: a win would take it to 58%, a defeat to 17%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMarseille: top 8Marseille: throughLevski Sofia: top 8Levski Sofia: through
Now4%68%<1%24%
Marseille win6%77%<1%17%
Draw1%51%<1%31%
Levski Sofia win<1%38%2%58%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.2 – 0.8Expected goals
47%Both teams score
57%3 or more goals
47%Marseille clean sheet
11%Levski Sofia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Marseille

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LBeşiktaş A1–4
  2. MD2LOlympiacos H0–1
  3. MD3Sturm Graz A22 October
  4. MD4Leverkusen A5 November
  5. MD5Levski Sofia H this match26 November
  6. MD6Celta H10 December
  7. MD7Celtic A21 January
  8. MD8Anderlecht H28 January

Levski Sofia

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LSalzburg H0–1
  2. MD2DN.E.C. Nijmegen A1–1
  3. MD3Viktoria Plzeň A22 October
  4. MD4Jagiellonia H5 November
  5. MD5Marseille A this match26 November
  6. MD6Lillestrøm H10 December
  7. MD7Milan H21 January
  8. MD8Sunderland A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Marseille vs Levski Sofia?

The model gives Marseille a 70% chance of winning and Levski Sofia 11%, with a draw at 18%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Levski Sofia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 2.2 for Marseille and 0.8 for Levski Sofia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 57% of cases.

What does this match mean for Marseille?

Marseille's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 77%, a draw 51% and a defeat 38%.

What does this match mean for Levski Sofia?

Levski Sofia's qualification chance is 24% right now. A win would make it 58%, a draw 31% and a defeat 17%.

When is Marseille vs Levski Sofia played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →