Juventus vs Omonia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
The model gives Juventus a 78% chance of winning, a draw 14% and Omonia 7%. Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 67%. Omonia's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Juventus: top 8 | Juventus: through | Omonia: top 8 | Omonia: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 89% | 100% | 9% | 82% |
| Juventus win | 93% | 100% | 6% | 79% |
| Draw | 80% | 100% | 11% | 89% |
| Omonia win | 67% | >99% | 28% | 99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Juventus
- MD1WN.E.C. Nijmegen H5–0
- MD2WCelta A2–1
- MD3Rennes H22 October
- MD4AZ Alkmaar A5 November
- MD5Omonia H this match26 November
- MD6Hapoel Beer-Sheva A10 December
- MD7Ferencváros A21 January
- MD8Real Sociedad H28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Juventus vs Omonia?
The model gives Juventus a 78% chance of winning and Omonia 7%, with a draw at 14%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Omonia?
The model gives both teams scoring a 44% chance. Expected goals are 2.6 for Juventus and 0.7 for Omonia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 62% of cases.
What does this match mean for Juventus?
Juventus's top-8 chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 93%, a draw 80% and a defeat 67%.
What does this match mean for Omonia?
Omonia's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 89% and a defeat 79%.
When is Juventus vs Omonia played?
Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz