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Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Viktoria Plzeň31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Benfica3rd, 6 pts
20%Viktoria Plzeň win
23%Draw
57%Benfica win

The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Benfica 57%. Viktoria Plzeň's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 60%, a defeat to 23%. Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeViktoria Plzeň: top 8Viktoria Plzeň: throughBenfica: top 8Benfica: through
Now<1%33%91%100%
Viktoria Plzeň win2%60%79%>99%
Draw<1%35%86%100%
Benfica win<1%23%96%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
17%Viktoria Plzeň clean sheet
39%Benfica clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Viktoria Plzeň

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LUnion SG H0–3
  2. MD2LFerencváros A1–2
  3. MD3Levski Sofia H22 October
  4. MD4Lillestrøm A5 November
  5. MD5Benfica H this match26 November
  6. MD6Bournemouth A10 December
  7. MD7Real Sociedad A21 January
  8. MD8Jagiellonia H28 January

Benfica

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WMilan A2–0
  2. MD2WCeltic H4–1
  3. MD3Omonia A22 October
  4. MD4Lech Poznań H5 November
  5. MD5Viktoria Plzeň A this match26 November
  6. MD6OFI Crete H10 December
  7. MD7N.E.C. Nijmegen A21 January
  8. MD8AZ Alkmaar H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica?

The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 20% chance of winning and Benfica 57%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Viktoria Plzeň and 1.8 for Benfica, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Viktoria Plzeň?

Viktoria Plzeň's qualification chance is 33% right now. A win would make it 60%, a draw 35% and a defeat 23%.

What does this match mean for Benfica?

Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 86% and a defeat 79%.

When is Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →