Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva: what's at stake in the Europa League?

Q: Who is favourite in Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

The model gives Beşiktaş a 63% chance of winning and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 16%, with a draw at 21%.

Q: What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Q: Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Beşiktaş and 0.9 for Hapoel Beer-Sheva, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

Q: What does this match mean for Beşiktaş?

Beşiktaş's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Beşiktaş4th, 6 pts

–Matchday 5

Hapoel Beer-Sheva24th, 1 pt

63%Beşiktaş win

21%Draw

16%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win

The model gives Beşiktaş a 63% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 16%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 93%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 20% now: a win would take it to 46%, a defeat to 13%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Outcome	Beşiktaş: top 8	Beşiktaş: through	Hapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8	Hapoel Beer-Sheva: through
Now	46%	98%	<1%	20%
Beşiktaş win	56%	>99%	<1%	13%
Draw	31%	97%	<1%	22%
Hapoel Beer-Sheva win	22%	93%	1%	46%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals

49%Both teams score

53%3 or more goals

42%Beşiktaş clean sheet

14%Hapoel Beer-Sheva clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%

2–011%

1–110%

2–110%

3–07%

3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Beşiktaş

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +4

MD1WMarseille H4–1
MD2WHoffenheim A3–2
MD3Crystal Palace H22 October
MD4Celtic A5 November
MD5Hapoel Beer-Sheva H this match26 November
MD6Leverkusen A10 December
MD7Union SG H21 January
MD8Omonia A28 January

Hapoel Beer-Sheva

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

MD1DGNK Dinamo H0–0
MD2LAZ Alkmaar A1–2
MD3Union SG A22 October
MD4OFI Crete H5 November
MD5Beşiktaş A this match26 November
MD6Juventus H10 December
MD7Celta H21 January
MD8Bournemouth A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

The model gives Beşiktaş a 63% chance of winning and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 16%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Beşiktaş and 0.9 for Hapoel Beer-Sheva, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Beşiktaş?

Beşiktaş's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

What does this match mean for Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

Hapoel Beer-Sheva's qualification chance is 20% right now. A win would make it 46%, a draw 22% and a defeat 13%.

When is Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →