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Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Sparta Praha11th, 4 pts
–Matchday 5
AZ Alkmaar20th, 3 pts
40%Sparta Praha win
26%Draw
33%AZ Alkmaar win

The model gives Sparta Praha a 40% chance of winning, a draw 26% and AZ Alkmaar 33%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 65%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 76%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSparta Praha: top 8Sparta Praha: throughAZ Alkmaar: top 8AZ Alkmaar: through
Now11%80%13%86%
Sparta Praha win19%94%5%76%
Draw8%79%9%86%
AZ Alkmaar win3%65%26%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
30%Sparta Praha clean sheet
25%AZ Alkmaar clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sparta Praha

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WArarat-Armenia A4–1
  2. MD2DLillestrøm H1–1
  3. MD3Olympiacos A22 October
  4. MD4Bournemouth H5 November
  5. MD5AZ Alkmaar H this match26 November
  6. MD6Salzburg A10 December
  7. MD7Crystal Palace A21 January
  8. MD8Rennes H28 January

AZ Alkmaar

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LSunderland A0–1
  2. MD2WHapoel Beer-Sheva H2–1
  3. MD3Ararat-Armenia A22 October
  4. MD4Juventus H5 November
  5. MD5Sparta Praha A this match26 November
  6. MD6Sturm Graz H10 December
  7. MD7GNK Dinamo H21 January
  8. MD8Benfica A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar?

The model gives Sparta Praha a 40% chance of winning and AZ Alkmaar 33%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sparta Praha and 1.2 for AZ Alkmaar, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sparta Praha?

Sparta Praha's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 79% and a defeat 65%.

What does this match mean for AZ Alkmaar?

AZ Alkmaar's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 86% and a defeat 76%.

When is Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →