Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
Sparta Praha3rd, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
AZ Alkmaar25th, 0 pts
38%Sparta Praha win
26%Draw
35%AZ Alkmaar win
The model gives Sparta Praha a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and AZ Alkmaar 35%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 71%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 75% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 62%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Sparta Praha: top 8 | Sparta Praha: through | AZ Alkmaar: top 8 | AZ Alkmaar: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 23% | 83% | 14% | 75% |
| Sparta Praha win | 37% | 95% | 5% | 62% |
| Draw | 17% | 82% | 10% | 74% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 11% | 71% | 27% | 90% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz