Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
Salzburg14th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Ararat-Armenia33rd, 0 pts
72%Salzburg win
17%Draw
11%Ararat-Armenia win
The model gives Salzburg a 72% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Ararat-Armenia 11%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 68%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 30%, a defeat to 7%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Salzburg: top 8 | Salzburg: through | Ararat-Armenia: top 8 | Ararat-Armenia: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 29% | 88% | <1% | 10% |
| Salzburg win | 35% | 94% | <1% | 7% |
| Draw | 16% | 79% | <1% | 13% |
| Ararat-Armenia win | 10% | 68% | 1% | 30% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz