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Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Salzburg21st, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Ararat-Armenia34th, 0 pts
73%Salzburg win
17%Draw
10%Ararat-Armenia win

The model gives Salzburg a 73% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Ararat-Armenia 10%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 57%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 22%, a defeat to 4%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSalzburg: top 8Salzburg: throughArarat-Armenia: top 8Ararat-Armenia: through
Now12%84%<1%6%
Salzburg win15%90%0%4%
Draw4%72%0%7%
Ararat-Armenia win2%57%<1%22%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.3 – 0.7Expected goals
46%Both teams score
58%3 or more goals
48%Salzburg clean sheet
10%Ararat-Armenia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Salzburg

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1WLevski Sofia A1–0
  2. MD2LMilan H0–4
  3. MD3Celje A22 October
  4. MD4Anderlecht A5 November
  5. MD5Ararat-Armenia H this match26 November
  6. MD6Sparta Praha H10 December
  7. MD7Leverkusen A21 January
  8. MD8Crystal Palace H28 January

Ararat-Armenia

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LSparta Praha H1–4
  2. MD2LJagiellonia A1–3
  3. MD3AZ Alkmaar H22 October
  4. MD4Torreense A5 November
  5. MD5Salzburg A this match26 November
  6. MD6N.E.C. Nijmegen H10 December
  7. MD7Celje H21 January
  8. MD8Milan A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in RB Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model gives Salzburg a 73% chance of winning and Ararat-Armenia 10%, with a draw at 17%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in RB Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance. Expected goals are 2.3 for Salzburg and 0.7 for Ararat-Armenia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 58% of cases.

What does this match mean for Salzburg?

Salzburg's qualification chance is 84% right now. A win would make it 90%, a draw 72% and a defeat 57%.

What does this match mean for Ararat-Armenia?

Ararat-Armenia's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 22%, a draw 7% and a defeat 4%.

When is Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →