Celtic vs Marseille: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 7 · Thursday 21 January, 21:00
The model gives Celtic a 32% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Marseille 41%. Celtic's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 60%, a defeat to 24%. Marseille's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Celtic: top 8 | Celtic: through | Marseille: top 8 | Marseille: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 1% | 38% | 4% | 68% |
| Celtic win | 3% | 60% | <1% | 50% |
| Draw | <1% | 35% | 2% | 63% |
| Marseille win | <1% | 24% | 9% | 85% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Marseille
- MD1LBeşiktaş A1–4
- MD2LOlympiacos H0–1
- MD3Sturm Graz A22 October
- MD4Leverkusen A5 November
- MD5Levski Sofia H26 November
- MD6Celta H10 December
- MD7Celtic A this match21 January
- MD8Anderlecht H28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Celtic vs Marseille?
The model gives Celtic a 32% chance of winning and Marseille 41%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).
Will both teams score in Celtic vs Marseille?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Celtic and 1.4 for Marseille, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Celtic?
Celtic's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 60%, a draw 35% and a defeat 24%.
What does this match mean for Marseille?
Marseille's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 63% and a defeat 50%.
When is Celtic vs Marseille played?
Thursday 21 January, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 7).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 7 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Union SG
- Ararat-Armenia – Celje
- Ferencváros – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Lyon
- Lillestrøm – Bournemouth
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Benfica
- Olympiacos – Hoffenheim
- Real Sociedad – Viktoria Plzeň
- Sturm Graz – OFI Crete
- AZ Alkmaar – GNK Dinamo
- Leverkusen – Salzburg
- Crystal Palace – Sparta Praha
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Celta
- Lech Poznań – Torreense
- Levski Sofia – Milan
- Anderlecht – Sunderland
- Rennes – Omonia