Lyon vs Lillestrøm: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
Lyon10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Lillestrøm24th, 0 pts
72%Lyon win
17%Draw
11%Lillestrøm win
The model gives Lyon a 72% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Lillestrøm 11%. Lyon's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 82%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 15% now: a win would take it to 37%, a defeat to 11%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lyon: top 8 | Lyon: through | Lillestrøm: top 8 | Lillestrøm: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 44% | 94% | <1% | 15% |
| Lyon win | 52% | 97% | <1% | 11% |
| Draw | 29% | 89% | 1% | 18% |
| Lillestrøm win | 19% | 82% | 2% | 37% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz