Lyon vs Lillestrøm: what's at stake in the Europa League?

Q: Who is favourite in Lyon vs Lillestrøm?

The model gives Lyon a 75% chance of winning and Lillestrøm 9%, with a draw at 16%.

Q: What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Q: Will both teams score in Lyon vs Lillestrøm?

The model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lyon and 0.7 for Lillestrøm, and the match has 3 or more goals in 60% of cases.

Q: What does this match mean for Lyon?

Lyon's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 95%.

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Lyon8th, 6 pts

–Matchday 5

Lillestrøm23rd, 1 pt

75%Lyon win

16%Draw

9%Lillestrøm win

The model gives Lyon a 75% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Lillestrøm 9%. Lyon's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 18% now: a win would take it to 45%, a defeat to 13%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Outcome	Lyon: top 8	Lyon: through	Lillestrøm: top 8	Lillestrøm: through
Now	59%	99%	<1%	18%
Lyon win	66%	>99%	<1%	13%
Draw	41%	98%	<1%	24%
Lillestrøm win	30%	95%	1%	45%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.4 – 0.7Expected goals

46%Both teams score

60%3 or more goals

50%Lyon clean sheet

9%Lillestrøm clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%

1–011%

3–010%

2–19%

1–18%

3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lyon

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

MD1WAnderlecht A2–1
MD2WCrystal Palace H3–2
MD3Hoffenheim A22 October
MD4Real Sociedad A5 November
MD5Lillestrøm H this match26 November
MD6Union SG H10 December
MD7Jagiellonia A21 January
MD8Leverkusen H28 January

Lillestrøm

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

MD1LTorreense H1–2
MD2DSparta Praha A1–1
MD3Real Sociedad H22 October
MD4Viktoria Plzeň H5 November
MD5Lyon A this match26 November
MD6Levski Sofia A10 December
MD7Bournemouth H21 January
MD8Celta A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lyon vs Lillestrøm?

The model gives Lyon a 75% chance of winning and Lillestrøm 9%, with a draw at 16%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lyon vs Lillestrøm?

The model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lyon and 0.7 for Lillestrøm, and the match has 3 or more goals in 60% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lyon?

Lyon's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 95%.

What does this match mean for Lillestrøm?

Lillestrøm's qualification chance is 18% right now. A win would make it 45%, a draw 24% and a defeat 13%.

When is Lyon vs Lillestrøm played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →