Knockout Math
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Lyon vs Lillestrøm: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Lyon10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Lillestrøm24th, 0 pts
72%Lyon win
17%Draw
11%Lillestrøm win

The model gives Lyon a 72% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Lillestrøm 11%. Lyon's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 82%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 15% now: a win would take it to 37%, a defeat to 11%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lyon: top 8Lyon: throughLillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: through
Now44%94%<1%15%
Lyon win52%97%<1%11%
Draw29%89%1%18%
Lillestrøm win19%82%2%37%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

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