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Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Hoffenheim30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Sturm Graz26th, 1 pt
56%Hoffenheim win
24%Draw
21%Sturm Graz win

The model gives Hoffenheim a 56% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Sturm Graz 21%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 61%, a defeat to 24%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 35%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHoffenheim: top 8Hoffenheim: throughSturm Graz: top 8Sturm Graz: through
Now2%47%1%46%
Hoffenheim win3%61%<1%35%
Draw<1%36%1%49%
Sturm Graz win<1%24%5%73%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
38%Hoffenheim clean sheet
18%Sturm Graz clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hoffenheim

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LOFI Crete A0–2
  2. MD2LBeşiktaş H2–3
  3. MD3Lyon H22 October
  4. MD4Crystal Palace A5 November
  5. MD5Sturm Graz H this match26 November
  6. MD6Anderlecht A10 December
  7. MD7Olympiacos A21 January
  8. MD8Ferencváros H28 January

Sturm Graz

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1DRennes H0–0
  2. MD2LBournemouth A0–3
  3. MD3Marseille H22 October
  4. MD4Celje H5 November
  5. MD5Hoffenheim A this match26 November
  6. MD6AZ Alkmaar A10 December
  7. MD7OFI Crete H21 January
  8. MD8GNK Dinamo A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz?

The model gives Hoffenheim a 56% chance of winning and Sturm Graz 21%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hoffenheim and 1.0 for Sturm Graz, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hoffenheim?

Hoffenheim's qualification chance is 47% right now. A win would make it 61%, a draw 36% and a defeat 24%.

What does this match mean for Sturm Graz?

Sturm Graz's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 73%, a draw 49% and a defeat 35%.

When is Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →