Knockout Math
Latviski

Benfica vs Celtic: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

Benfica7th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Celtic28th, 0 pts
61%Benfica win
22%Draw
17%Celtic win

The model gives Benfica a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Celtic 17%. Benfica's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. Celtic's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 44%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Benfica: top 8Benfica: throughCeltic: top 8Celtic: through
Now82%99%6%52%
Benfica win90%>99%3%44%
Draw74%99%6%56%
Celtic win63%98%17%76%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

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