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N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Rennes: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

N.E.C. Nijmegen27th, 1 pt
–Matchday 5
Rennes13th, 4 pts
33%N.E.C. Nijmegen win
26%Draw
41%Rennes win

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Rennes 41%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 38%. Rennes's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 82%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeN.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: throughRennes: top 8Rennes: through
Now2%53%21%91%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win6%75%8%82%
Draw1%50%14%91%
Rennes win<1%38%34%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
25%N.E.C. Nijmegen clean sheet
30%Rennes clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

N.E.C. Nijmegen

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LJuventus A0–5
  2. MD2DLevski Sofia H1–1
  3. MD3GNK Dinamo A22 October
  4. MD4Omonia H5 November
  5. MD5Rennes H this match26 November
  6. MD6Ararat-Armenia A10 December
  7. MD7Benfica H21 January
  8. MD8Celje A28 January

Rennes

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DSturm Graz A0–0
  2. MD2WOFI Crete H2–1
  3. MD3Juventus A22 October
  4. MD4Olympiacos H5 November
  5. MD5N.E.C. Nijmegen A this match26 November
  6. MD6GNK Dinamo H10 December
  7. MD7Omonia H21 January
  8. MD8Sparta Praha A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Rennes?

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 33% chance of winning and Rennes 41%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Rennes?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for N.E.C. Nijmegen and 1.4 for Rennes, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for N.E.C. Nijmegen?

N.E.C. Nijmegen's qualification chance is 53% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 50% and a defeat 38%.

What does this match mean for Rennes?

Rennes's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 91% and a defeat 82%.

When is N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Rennes played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →