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Sunderland vs Jagiellonia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Sunderland9th, 6 pts
–Matchday 5
Jagiellonia17th, 3 pts
60%Sunderland win
22%Draw
18%Jagiellonia win

The model gives Sunderland a 60% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Jagiellonia 18%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSunderland: top 8Sunderland: throughJagiellonia: top 8Jagiellonia: through
Now55%99%4%59%
Sunderland win68%>99%1%50%
Draw43%98%3%64%
Jagiellonia win28%96%11%86%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
41%Sunderland clean sheet
16%Jagiellonia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sunderland

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAZ Alkmaar H1–0
  2. MD2WTorreense A2–1
  3. MD3Lech Poznań A22 October
  4. MD4GNK Dinamo H5 November
  5. MD5Jagiellonia H this match26 November
  6. MD6Milan A10 December
  7. MD7Anderlecht A21 January
  8. MD8Levski Sofia H28 January

Jagiellonia

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LOlympiacos A1–2
  2. MD2WArarat-Armenia H3–1
  3. MD3Anderlecht H22 October
  4. MD4Levski Sofia A5 November
  5. MD5Sunderland A this match26 November
  6. MD6Crystal Palace H10 December
  7. MD7Lyon H21 January
  8. MD8Viktoria Plzeň A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sunderland vs Jagiellonia?

The model gives Sunderland a 60% chance of winning and Jagiellonia 18%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Jagiellonia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sunderland and 0.9 for Jagiellonia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sunderland?

Sunderland's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

What does this match mean for Jagiellonia?

Jagiellonia's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 86%, a draw 64% and a defeat 50%.

When is Sunderland vs Jagiellonia played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →