Celtic vs Beşiktaş: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
Celtic28th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Beşiktaş4th, 3 pts
43%Celtic win
26%Draw
31%Beşiktaş win
The model gives Celtic a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Beşiktaş 31%. Celtic's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 34%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 77%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Celtic: top 8 | Celtic: through | Beşiktaş: top 8 | Beşiktaş: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 6% | 52% | 25% | 85% |
| Celtic win | 11% | 70% | 14% | 77% |
| Draw | 3% | 46% | 22% | 86% |
| Beşiktaş win | 2% | 34% | 44% | 96% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo