Knockout Math
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Celtic vs Beşiktaş: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Celtic28th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Beşiktaş4th, 3 pts
43%Celtic win
26%Draw
31%Beşiktaş win

The model gives Celtic a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Beşiktaş 31%. Celtic's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 34%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 77%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Celtic: top 8Celtic: throughBeşiktaş: top 8Beşiktaş: through
Now6%52%25%85%
Celtic win11%70%14%77%
Draw3%46%22%86%
Beşiktaş win2%34%44%96%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Other matchday 4 fixtures