Celtic vs Beşiktaş: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
The model gives Celtic a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Beşiktaş 38%. Celtic's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 58%, a defeat to 23%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Celtic: top 8 | Celtic: through | Beşiktaş: top 8 | Beşiktaş: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 1% | 38% | 46% | 98% |
| Celtic win | 3% | 58% | 29% | 96% |
| Draw | <1% | 34% | 40% | 99% |
| Beşiktaş win | <1% | 23% | 65% | >99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Beşiktaş
- MD1WMarseille H4–1
- MD2WHoffenheim A3–2
- MD3Crystal Palace H22 October
- MD4Celtic A this match5 November
- MD5Hapoel Beer-Sheva H26 November
- MD6Leverkusen A10 December
- MD7Union SG H21 January
- MD8Omonia A28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Celtic vs Beşiktaş?
The model gives Celtic a 35% chance of winning and Beşiktaş 38%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).
Will both teams score in Celtic vs Beşiktaş?
The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Celtic and 1.3 for Beşiktaş, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Celtic?
Celtic's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 58%, a draw 34% and a defeat 23%.
What does this match mean for Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 96%.
When is Celtic vs Beşiktaş played?
Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo